The Eagles, Doug Pederson and Nick Foles have shocked the world by winning twice home underdogs to advance to the Super Bowl. Now, they’re listed as a 4.5 point underdog.
Both of these teams have been impressive against the spread this season, each at 12-6. In addition, the Patriots are 16-6 against the spread in their last 22 games against NFC teams and the Eagles have been 13-4 against AFC teams in their last 17 meetings. Furthermore, both teams are 4-1 against the spread in their previous 5 games.
Based on the way both teams play, it will definitely be close. Philadelphia has a great defense and can limit Brady, especially in the first half. However, they won’t get away with any of it in the second half because Bill makes great adjustments. As flawed as New England’s defense is, I don’t see Nick Foles running up the score considering he will be coming off of 2 weeks preparation. Nick Foles isn’t Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers, if you have film on him, you can probably slow him down.
In just about every capacity, the Eagles are a better team than the Patriots. Better defense, better receiving core, better run-game, O-Line, you name it, but New England beats them in the two most important areas, QB and head coach, which are most important. Based on the overall skillset of Philadelphia, they’re not going down without a fight. In addition, Philadelphia is definitely going to try and dominate possession time, which will likely result in a closer game. This year’s New England team is also too weak to to blow out any legitimate playocontender. I like New England to win outright, but pick Philly to cover the 4.5 point spread.