US House Continues to Trend Democratic Three Weeks Out from Election Day 2018


After looking at the multitude of House Seats in play for 2018 last month, with three weeks before Election Day 2018 and Q3 Fundraising reports out, along with a fresh set of polling, it’s time to review the initial rankings for each battleground seat and highlight the ones that have trended Dem or GOP over the past few weeks. As a primer you can familiarize yourself with the full house Battleground, including the West, Midwest, and the Northeast and South.

West Coast (AK, WA, CA, NV)
Ratings for Highlighted Seats: 8 GOP, 10 Dem, 2 Toss-Up
Current Expectation: 5-9 seat gain for Democrats
Trend Since September: 6 seats towards Dems, 2 towards GOP (D+1 seat gain)

AK-AL (<-Lean GOP): Independent Democrat Alyse Galvin keeps gaining on Legendary GOP Rep Don Young and Democrats have won statewide in Alaska, meaning that Young needs to be sweating at this point. That said, his longevity isn’t a fluke and he should remain a slight favorite until we see further movement towards Galvin.

WA-03 (<-Lean GOP): Jamie Herrera Beutler should still be favored against Carolyn Long (D) but polling here has shown a close enough race that it now belongs in the Lean GOP category. This is the type of traditionally Republican seat that Dems would love to snap up in a bit of a surprise and they are moving closer by the day.

WA-08 (->Lean Dem): Republican Dino Rossi would win this seat in any other year but this one and he’s shown surprising staying power, enough to move this open seat from likely to lean Dem, that said Kim Schrier (D) has to remain the favorite in this climate as I don’t see Dems losing many Clinton voting seats, especially open ones.

CA-21 (->Likely GOP): National groups have given up on Democrat T.J. Cox as heavily Hispanic House Seats remain a riddle for Democrats this cycle. Republican David Valadao looks likely to survive a wave wiping out many of his California GOP colleagues due to significant crossover Hispanic support. Democrats blew their shot at this seat with a dumpster fire of a Hispanic outreach campaign.

CA-39 (<-Toss Up): The removal of a sexual harassment cloud over the head of lotto winning Democrat Gil Cisneros has clearly boosted his chances of winning this open seat against Republican top recruit Young Kim. I still have Kim as a slight favorite but GOP hopes keep declining in California overall. Kim is another candidate who would win in any other cycle but this one (and could still beat the wave).

CA-45 (<-Lean Dem): Republican Congresswoman Mimi Walters has collapsed against Democrat Katie Porter and looks set to get triaged by the National GOP. I’d be shocked if she came back at this point.

CA-48 (<-Likely Dem): Republican Dana Rohrabacher is barely raising money and he’s also been triaged, Russia’s best friend in Congress is about to be a lobbyist in the private sector. Harley Rouda (D) can probably start measuring the drapes.

CA-49 (<-Likely Dem): Mike Levin (D) has opened up a big lead on Republican Diane Harkey, the GOP has little hope of holding this open seat at this point.

No Change in rating
OR-05 (Safe Dem)
WA-05 (Lean GOP)
CA-01 (Safe GOP)
CA-04 (Likely GOP)
CA-07 (Safe Dem)
CA-10 (Lean Dem)
CA-22 (Likely GOP)
CA-24 (Safe Dem)
CA-25 (Toss Up)
CA-50 (Lean GOP)
NV-03 (Likely Dem)
NV-04 (Safe Dem)

Mountain West (AZ, NM, CO, UT, MT)
Ratings for Highlighted Seats: 4 GOP, 3 Dem, 2 Toss-Up
Current Expectation: 2-6 seat gain for Democrats
Trend Since September: 2 seats towards Dems

AZ-02 (<-Likely Dem): Republicans have given up on Lea Marquez Peterson, Moderate Dem Ann Kirkpatrick is going to be back in Congress.

UT-04 (<-Toss-Up): A campaign finance scandal has really hampered Republican Congresswoman Mia Love, SLC County Mayor Ben McAdams (D) has been rising in recent weeks and I’m close to making him the favorite at this point, as the GOP looks set to lose what was once a rising star in Congress.

No Change in rating
AZ-01 (Safe Dem)
AZ-06 (Likely GOP)
AZ-08 (Likely GOP)
NM-02 (Lean GOP)
CO-03 (Lean GOP)
CO-06 (Likely Dem)
MT-AL (Toss-Up)

Plains States (NE, KS, OK, MO, IA)
Ratings for Highlighted Seats: 5 GOP, 3 Dem, 1 Toss-Up
Current Expectation: 3-5 seat gain for Democrats
Trend Since September: 2 seats towards Dems, 1 towards GOP

NE-02 (->Lean GOP): Republican Don Bacon has proven to be a better fit for his district than Progressive Democrat Kara Eastman. Eastman hasn’t gotten the help she deserved and Bacon looks set to survive an otherwise difficult night for Republicans.

KS-02 (<-Toss Up): Republicans have gone hard after moderate Democrat Paul Davis but their candidate Steve Watkins is a “meh” candidate and his best hope is that support from the likes of Bob Dole will push him over the finish line. If Dems win Kansas, Davis will win with them.

KS-03 (<-Likely Dem): Democrat Sharice Davids is crushing Republican Kevin Yoder, who has been abandoned by his party. I could see Davids running for President one day, she’s going to rise quickly in Dem ranks if she can remain in office.

No Change in rating
OK-05 (Likely GOP)
MO-02 (Lean GOP)
IA-01 (Likely Dem)
IA-03 (Lean Dem)
IA-04 (Likely GOP)
KS-04 (Likely GOP)

Midwest (MN, WI, MI, OH, IN, IL, PA)
Ratings for Highlighted Seats: 18 GOP, 12 Dem, 8 Toss-Up
Current Expectation: 6-16 seat gain for Democrats
Trend Since September: 11 seats towards Dems, 2 towards GOP (D+1 seat gain)

MN-01 (<-Toss-Up): Democrat Dan Feehan is likely still trailing as he hopes to hold onto this Dem Open seat, but Republican Jim Hagerdorn is fighting a wave in Minnesota and he’s now only a nominal favorite at best.

MN-02 (<-Likely Dem): After being left at the altar in 2016, Angie Craig (D) is going to beat Jason Lewis (R) the only question is by how much.

MN-08 (->Lean GOP): This conservative leaning Dem held open seat is trending towards Republican Pete Stauber, the only debate is by how much. Democrat Joe Radinovich will have to rely on a strong Dem night in Minnesota to save him.

MI-02 (<-Likely GOP) Physician Rob Davidson (D) has put this Western Michigan seat on the map against GOP Congressman Bill Huizenga. Davidson has enough money to at least make election night interesting in what should be a disaster for Michigan Republicans overall, but unless he gets more outside help I don’t see Davidson being able to pull this off in a very conservative seat on paper.

MI-08 (<-Lean Dem) Republican incumbent Mike Bishop keeps slipping against Elissa Slotkin (D), given how Michigan is trending overall Slotkin should be the favorite at this point.

MI-11 (<-Likely Dem): Trump Republican Lena Epstein’s hopes of saving this open seat for the GOP have faded rapidly. Democratic rising star Haley Stevens is going to win.

OH-01 (->Lean GOP): Republican Steve Chabot has been resilient against Aftab Pureval (D), character attacks on Pureval have dragged him down and the seat now favors a Republican hold.

OH-12 (<-Toss Up): Republican Troy Balderson is fumbling his hopes of securing a full term to Congress after winning a special election. Strong turnout in Franklin county could allow Democrat Danny O’Connor to avenge his recent defeat, but he’ll need to cut into Balderson’s rural margins as well.

IL-13 (<-Toss Up): Dueling internals have this seat all over the map, but Dems are set to have a good night in Illinois and accordingly I’ll give Betsy Dirksen Londrigran a coin flip chance at knocking off Republican Rodney Davis.

PA-07 (<-Safe Dem): A purple seat on paper, recent polling has shown Democrat Susan Wild has all the momentum and will run up the margin against Republican Marty Nothstein

PA-08 (<-Safe Dem): Despite the GOP poking around in this Trump voting seat, Democrat Matt Cartwright maintains a strong personal profile and will get re-elected.

PA-10 (<- Toss Up): Republican Scott Perry should no longer be confident against George Scott (D) as this normally conservative seat has come online for Dems amidst a collapse in GOP support in Pennsylvania. Perry remains a slight favorite but based on current trends I wouldn’t be surprised to see him lose.

PA-16 (<-Lean GOP): The DCCC seems to believe Republican Mike Kelly is in trouble. I don’t see Democrat Ron DiNicola winning at this time but we’ll see if a late push can move this seat closer to the Dem column.

No Change in rating
MN-03 (Likely Dem)
MN-07 (Safe Dem)
WI-01 (Lean GOP)
WI-06 (Lean GOP)
WI-08 (Likely GOP)
MI-01 (Likely GOP)
MI-03 (Likely GOP)
MI-06 (Lean GOP)
MI-07 (Toss Up)
OH-07 (Likely GOP)
OH-10 (Likely GOP)
OH-14 (Likely GOP)
OH-15 (Likely GOP)
IN-02 (Likely GOP)
IN-05 (Likely GOP)
IN-09 (Likely GOP)
IL-06 (Lean Dem)
IL-12 (Toss Up)
IL-14 (Toss Up)

PA-01 (Toss Up)
PA-05 (Safe Dem)
PA-06 (Likely Dem)
PA-14 (Safe GOP)
PA-17 (Safe Dem)

South (AR, TX, GA, SC, FL, NC, VA, WV, KY)
Ratings for Highlighted Seats: 28 GOP, 4 Dem, 8 Toss Up
Current Expectation: 3-20 seat gain for Democrats
Trend Since September: 10 seats towards Dems, 4 towards GOP (D+1 seat gain)

TX-06 (<-Likely GOP): This open seat is probably too rural for Democrat Jana Lynn Sanchez, a journalist, to pick off, but she’s giving Republican former Congressional aide Ron Wright a run for his money.

TX-07 (<-Toss Up): Democrat Lizzie Pannill Fletcher’s standing has improved slightly against Republican John Culberson. Turnout will decide this race, if it’s high Fletcher will win for sure but now the race remains tied.

TX-23 (->Likely GOP): Another wave beater, Democrats are struggling mightily in heavily Hispanic seats with both turnout and persuasion this year. Republican Will Hurd is set to ease past Gina Ortiz Jones (D) in a massive missed opportunity for Democrats.

TX-25 (<-Likely GOP): Republican Roger Williams is actually facing a credible challenge from attorney Julie Oliver, he’s still likely to win but this is another race the Texas GOP did not expect.

FL-06 (<-Lean GOP): Democrat Nancy Soderberg has improved her standing a bit against Mike Waltz (R) in recent weeks. Waltz remains favored but if Democrats win statewide in Florida Soderberg may get carried over the line.

FL-07 (<-Likely Dem): Republican Mike Miller doesn’t have enough money to credibly challenge Stephanie Murphy (D), in a missed opportunity for the GOP.

FL-15 (<-Toss Up): This low profile open seat in a Romney/Trump seat in central Florida keeps getting closer. Republican State Rep Ross Spano has at best a minuscule lead against attorney Kristen Carlson (D), and Carlson has more money. GOP outside groups have engaged more than Dems on this race but if Carlson can get some help for her poor ground game it will probably be enough to win in this rapidly changing area.

FL-16 (->Likely GOP): The DCCC probably wasted their money going after Rep. Vern Buchanan (R), Buchanan was an alluring target but going after FL-15 or FL-25 would have been a much better target. Democrat David Shapiro doesn’t have the charisma to pull off an upset in this Sarasota based seat.

FL-26 (<-Toss Up): Republican Carlos Curbelo remains a small favorite against Democrat Debbie Murcasel Powell but the race has tightened considerably. A strong result for statewide Dems in Florida may doom Curbelo who is one of the strongest GOP incumbents in the country.

NC-13 (->Lean GOP): This race is close but Ted Budd (R) is doing better than I thought he would against Kathy Manning (D). I thought Manning would have a lead right now but Budd stubbornly leads polling and is now favored to hang out.

VA-02 (->Lean GOP): Another resilient Republican. Scott Taylor is beating the line with non-white voters and is now leading against Elaine Luria (D) in a seat Dems should have wrapped up by now. Taylor could well be one of the few survivors from the VA GOP delegation as his profile has proven to be relatively teflon against Dem attacks.

VA-07 (<-Lean Dem): Republican Dave Brat has run a miserable campaign against Abigail Spanberger (D), It’s not over yet, but Brat hasn’t made a serious effort at connecting with the parts of the district that don’t know him well, and he’s coming across as too conservative for the current climate. To make things worse, the GOP is about to get swamped in VA.

VA-10 (<-Likely Dem): Republicans have taken pity on Barbara Comstock (R) and keep propping her up with ads, but Democrat Jennifer Wexton is going to win this NOVA based Clinton seat, perhaps by double digits.

WV-03 (->Lean GOP): Democrat Richard Ojeda is a great story but he’s slipped behind Republican Carol Miller for the time being. Miller isn’t a great candidate though and Joe Manchin will win this district, so Ojeda isn’t toast yet.

KY-06 (<-Toss Up): Democrat Amy McGrath has the momentum against Andy Barr (R) in Kentucky’s only competitive topline race this year. This is still a tough seat but McGrath’s ground game and resilience to attacks may be enough to put her over the top.

No change in rating
AL-02 (Safe GOP)
AR-02 (Likely GOP)
TX-02 (Likely GOP)
TX-10 (Likely GOP)
TX-21 (Likely GOP)
TX-22 (Likely GOP)
TX-31 (Likely GOP)
TX-32 (Toss Up)
GA-01 (Safe GOP)
GA-06 (Lean GOP)
GA-07 (Lean GOP)
GA-12 (Safe GOP)
SC-01 (Likely GOP)
FL-18 (Lean GOP)
FL-25 (Likely GOP)
FL-27 (Toss Up)
NC-02 (Toss Up)
NC-06 (Lean GOP)
NC-07 (Lean GOP)
NC-08 (Likely GOP)
NC-09 (Lean Dem)
VA-01 (Likely GOP)
VA-05 (Toss Up)
VA-09 (Safe GOP)
WV-02 (Likely GOP)

Northeast (NJ, NY, NH, ME)
Ratings for Highlighted Seats: 7 GOP, 11 Dem, 1 Toss Up)
Current Expectation: 6-12 Seat Gain for Democrats
Trend Since September: 5 seats towards Democrats

NJ-11 (<-Safe Dem): Popular Democrat Mikie Sherill is going to win against Republican Jay Webber, and really should be the replacement for Senator Bob Menendez (D).

NY-01 (<-Lean GOP): Republican Lee Zeldin remains the favorite but Perry Gershon has plenty of money and is going to fight for this GOP leaning seat until the last.

NY-02 (<-Lean GOP): Republican Peter King is in real trouble against Liuba Grechen Shirley who would win the appreciation of foreign policy doves everywhere if she’s able to upset King in a wave result.

NY-27 (<-Lean GOP): Republican Chris Collins is still leading, but the insider trading indictment against him has been a harsh blow to his chances of victory. (Now well-funded) Democrat Nate McMurray could become one of the most unlikely members of the Democratic House Caucus.

ME-02 (<-Toss Up): I’m still convinced personal favorability will help Republican Bruce Poliquin here but he hasn’t put away Democrat Jared Golden at all, and given current trends Golden is close to becoming the favorite.

No change in rating
NJ-02 (Safe Dem)
NJ-03 (Lean Dem)
NJ-05 (Safe Dem)
NJ-07 (Lean Dem)
NY-11 (Lean GOP)
NY-18 (Safe Dem)
NY-19 (Lean Dem)
NY-21 (Likely GOP)
NY-22 (Likely Dem)
NY-23 (Safe GOP)
NY-24 (Lean GOP)
NH-01 (Likely Dem)
NH-02 (Safe Dem)

Overall Summary

Democrats have now crossed the rubicon as they are outright favored to win 220 seats in the House, 5 more than the 215 they need for control. Republicans are favored in just 194 seats, and they have 28 seats in the “lean” column, and 36 in the “likely column”, meaning that number could fall further. Below is the current House battleground

Click the map to create your own at

Democrats are now favored in 23 Republican held seats, 20 more are in play, and they have at least 25% odds in another 25 seats meaning they could finish over 240 seats in a “wave” environment. Pushing the toss-up seats to one side or the other results in a House that is currently 227- 208 in favor of Democrats, and the Democratic odds of finishing 230+ seats are good presently.

Click the map to create your own at

The House is basically gone and the GOP just needs to decide which seats they care about saving most.

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